Daily Archives: February 13, 2008

Secrecy Reports and Updates

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SECRECY NEWS
from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy
Volume 2008, Issue No. 16
February 13, 2008

Secrecy News Blog:  http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/

** ARMY BLOCKS PUBLIC ACCESS TO DIGITAL LIBRARY
** INTERDICTION OF AIRCRAFT INVOLVED IN DRUG SMUGGLING
** IRANIAN NUCLEAR SCIENCE RESEARCH
** THE RUIN OF J. ROBERT OPPENHEIMER
** DOD ON DETAINEE OPERATIONS

ARMY BLOCKS PUBLIC ACCESS TO DIGITAL LIBRARY

Public access to the Reimer Digital Library, which is the largest
online collection of U.S. Army doctrinal publications, has been blocked
by the Army, which last week moved the collection behind a
password-protected firewall.

ARMY Blocks link:    
http://www.train.army.mil/

But today the Federation of American Scientists filed a Freedom of
Information Act request asking the Army to provide a copy of the entire
unclassified Library so that it could be posted on the FAS web site.

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The Army move on February 6 marks the latest step in an ongoing
withdrawal of government records from the public domain.

"It was a policy decision to put it behind the AKO [Army Knowledge
Online] firewall and to restrict public access," said Don Gough of the
system development division at the Army Training Support Center at Fort
Eustis, Virginia, which operates the Reimer Digital Library.

The move came as a surprise since only unclassified and non-sensitive
records had ever been made available at the Library site.

Isn’t it true, Secrecy News asked, that the only documents that had
been accessible to the public were those that had been specifically…
"’Approved for public release,’ yes," said Mr. Gough, completing our
sentence.  "I understand your concern," he added.

The FAS Freedom of Information Act request is intended to reverse the
Army action.

"We hope to restore public access to the Reimer Digital Library by
obtaining all of its publicly releasable contents and posting that
material on our own website," the FAS request explained.  "Furthermore,
in order to preserve the status quo, we expect to file regular FOIA
requests for updates to the RDL two or three times a month, so that we
may add them to our mirror site."

"Alternatively, if the Army were to restore the prior level of public
access to the RDL, that would fulfill this request and make future
requests unnecessary," the FAS request stated.

Among the many thousands of documents that were formerly available to
the public on the Reimer Digital Library, two of the latest additions
are these:

"The Modular Force," Field Manual Interim FMI 3-0.1, January 2008:

     http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fmi3-0-1.pdf

"Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and High Yield Explosives
Operational Headquarters," Field Manual Interim FMI 3-90.10, January
2008:

     http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fmi3-90-10.pdf

INTERDICTION OF AIRCRAFT INVOLVED IN DRUG SMUGGLING

The U.S. Government supported the interdiction of over 80 flights over
Colombia last year as well as an undisclosed number of other flights
over Brazil that were suspected of involvement in drug trafficking,
according to a new White House report to Congress.

The report describes the procedures used, and the results that
followed.

See "Report Relating to the Interdiction of Aircraft Involved in
Illicit Drug Trafficking," communication from the President of the
United States, February 6:

     http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2008_rpt/interdict.pdf

IRANIAN NUCLEAR SCIENCE RESEARCH

The scale of Iranian research in nuclear science and technology is
evident from a new bibliography of published research by Iranian
scientists.

The bibliography, prepared by Mark Gorwitz, a private nonproliferation
researcher, includes titles on nuclear physics, reactor safety, isotope
separation and more.

See "Iranian Nuclear Science Bibliography: Open Literature References,"
by Mark Gorwitz, February 2008:

     http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iran/nuke/biblio.pdf

THE RUIN OF J. ROBERT OPPENHEIMER

Priscilla J. McMillan, author of the well-received 2006 book "The Ruin
of J. Robert Oppenheimer and the Birth of the Modern Arms Race," has
opened up some of her personal archives relating to Oppenheimer and
posted them online.

Dozens of primary source documents that were uncovered by Ms. McMillan
in the course of her research on Oppenheimer, along with related
resources, can now be found on this site:

     http://h-bombbook.com/index.html

The author has a new blog here:

     http://blog.h-bombbook.com/

DOD ON DETAINEE OPERATIONS

The Department of Defense has released the final version of its
controversial doctrine on "detainee operations," which defines the
class of unlawful enemy combatants and prescribes their treatment.

"US forces must be prepared to properly control, maintain, protect, and
account for all categories of detainees in accordance with applicable
domestic law, international law, and policy," the new publication
explains.

Among the categories of detainees are those designated as "unlawful
enemy combatants" who, the DoD states, do not enjoy the ordinary
protections of lawful combatants.

"Unlawful ECs are persons not entitled to combatant immunity, who
engage in acts against the United States or its coalition partners in
violation of the laws and customs of war during an armed conflict or
who support such acts. For purposes of the war on terrorism, the term
unlawful EC is defined to include, but is not limited to, an individual
who is or was part of or supporting Taliban or al Qaeda forces or
associated forces that are engaged in hostilities against the United
States or its coalition partners."

At the same time, however, even unlawful enemy combatants must be
treated humanely, the document says, and to do otherwise is a war
crime.

"Common Article 3 to the Geneva Conventions of 1949, as construed and
applied by US law, establishes minimum standards for the humane
treatment of all persons detained by the United States and coalition
and allied forces. It is a war crime to undercut or violate these
standards. Common Article 3 prohibits at any time and in any place:
‘violence to life and person, in particular murder of all kinds,
mutilation, cruel treatment and torture; taking of hostages; outrages
upon personal dignity, in particular humiliating and degrading
treatment; the passing of sentences and the carrying out of executions
without previous judgment pronounced by a regularly constituted court,
affording all the judicial guarantees which are recognized as
indispensable by civilized peoples’."

See "Detainee Operations," Joint Publication JP 3-63, February 6, 2008:

     http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/dod/jp3_63.pdf

_______________________________________________
Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the
Federation of American Scientists.

FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

Gold Price News

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Merrill Lynch substantially raises gold prices forecast, ups silver too

High gold prices, supported by supply and demand fundamentals, has prompted Merrill Lynch analysts Monday to substantially increase gold price forecasts to an annual average of $1,000/oz by 2009.

by Dorothy Kosich
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
www.mineweb.com
RENO, NV –

Citing broadening investor demand, a weak U.S. dollar, record oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tension, Merrill Lynch Monday substantially raised their 2008-2012 gold forecasts, while also predicting increased silver prices.

Research analysts Michael Jalonen and Jeffrey Schok said they expect gold to average $925/oz this year and $1,000/oz in 2009 (up from $750/oz and $800/oz respectively). They raised the long-term gold price forecast from $600/oz to $650/oz, beginning in 2013. "Due to higher forecasts for the 2008-2012 period, our 10-year average gold price has jumped from $655 to $800/oz," they said.
"Notwithstanding the possibility of short-term strength in the US$, higher gold prices should be supported by positive supply-demand fundamentals including stagnant mine production and robust jewellery demand in emerging markets, in our opinion."

ML also made significant increases in EPS and CFPS forecasts for all North American gold producers under the broker’s coverage. The companies with the largest EPS changes included Gammon Gold, Gold Star Resources and Centerra. The smallest changes to 2008 EPS forecasts are generally drawn from the lowest cost producers including Goldcorp, Yamana Gold, and Royal Gold.

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The analysts also changed net assets values (NAV) for both North American gold and silver producers, based on upgraded gold and silver price assumptions. The gold producers reporting the largest change in estimated NAVs include Kinross, Centerra, and Golden Star. "The main drivers for the above average sensitivity to gold prices changes include higher than average cash costs and/or substantial reserve and resource positions which become economic at higher gold prices," according to Jalonen and Schok.

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Gold Supply/Demand

"Looking ahead, we expect global mine production to be effectively stable in 2008, chiefly as a result of lower than anticipated supply from new mines and lower grades at maturing operations," they wrote. "Thereafter we are forecasting volumes to increase in 2009, 2010 and 2011 with average annual growth over this relatively short period of expansion at around 2%. Given extended delays in mine development reported across the sector, however, this may present a somewhat optimistic outlook."

Nevertheless, ML added that they don’t anticipate that future gold production will be the historic high of 2,645 tonnes achieved in 2001. "The decline in global output from 2011 onwards is chiefly due to ore depletion at operating mines (defined as mines in production in 2007. Mine closures begin to have an impact in 2009, with losses accelerating from 2012."

Merrill Lynch’s research identified France, Switzerland and the ECB to be the main central bank gold sellers from 2007-2009. The Netherlands, Sweden, Germany and Australia are expected to have smaller disposals.

"Given the projected shortfall from the 500 tonne maximum, it is possible that the ECB could accelerate disposals," the analysts suggested, adding that a less likely scenario would involve sales to benefit the IMF.

ML also forecast that producer de-hedging will slow this year. "The accelerated run down in the hedge book has, of course, had a noticeable impact on the delivery profit of the book. We estimate that producer de-hedging lowered supply/enhanced demand by 410 tonnes in 2007. With only a few companies left with meaningful hedge books, we see producer de-hedging declining to roughly 120 tonnes in 2008 (and lower in subsequent years."

Silver Supply/Demand

Noting that the spot silver price has averaged $16.07/oz year-to-date 2008, Merrill Lynch raised its 2008, 2009, and 2010 silver price forecasts from $14, $13 and $12/oz to $15.50, $16.50, and $17/oz respectively. "We are also revising upwards our long-term silver price forecast from $10.00/oz to $10.50/oz.

The analysts forecast that mine production will account for 71% of total silver supply in 2007, as a new generation of silver mines commences production. "For 2008, we are forecasting a 5% increase in YOY mine output to 675 million ounces as several new mines ramp up (San Cristobal and San Bartolome in Bolivia, Palmerejo, Alamo Dorado, Ocampo and Delores in Mexico), and Manatial Espejo in Argentina. Looming in the future is the giant Pascua mine ion Chile."

Based on gold prices of $900/oz and $16.75/oz silver, Merrill Lynch estimated the current gold: silver ratio at around 54 times (or 54 ounces silver for every ounce of gold).

(Note: ML expects gold to average $925 this year. With gold already having traded higher than $925, that may seem like a not too bullish report, but take into consideration that the data for the report probably was gathered months ago. Further, the estimate is for gold to average $925 in 2008, which is a bullish forecast because for gold to average $925 it will have hold onto recent gains. And, ML looks for an average gold price of $1,000 in 2009. With many investors hoping for gold to hit $1,000 this year, and it may, that may seem too low. Still, those are bullish expectations for the yellow metal.

As for the most light reflective metal, however, $15.50 this year seems low considering that silver is now trading above $17 and all price drops are short-lived. All in all, its good to see an establishment house release a bullish report on gold and silver. You have to wonder, though, where ML was five years ago.)
FAIR USE NOTICE: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.